NFL Nation reporters2 Minute Reading
All 32 NFL teams have high expectations during training camp, but much will affect a race to the Super Bowl in the 17 games of the regular season. There are always surprises — and variables we didn’t think about during the preseason — and 2023 will be no different.
To look at the bigger picture and how good — or bad — each team could be this season, we turned to our ESPN Football Power Index (FPI). FPI estimates the win totals for each team based on 20,000 simulations throughout the season conducted by our ESPN Stats & Information team, but to see the highs and lows, we chose the middle 90% of those simulations. That gives us a ceiling and a floor in terms of expected record for each team in 2023, with potential outliers eliminated. In other words, we identify realistic best-case and worst-case scenarios for each team.
What can we expect from each team this season? If all goes well, what would each team’s record be? And if the worst-case scenario plays out, what will their records look like? We pulled the FPI ceilings and floors for each team, then asked our NFL Nation reporters to explain the biggest factor that will determine where each team falls within the win-total spectrum. Our reporters are not allowed, however, to go for the quick answer and write about the success or failure of the quarterback they cover.
Let’s go division-by-division, pick an X factor for all 32 teams:
Jump to:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | New York | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
AFC EAST
Ceiling: 13-4 | Floor: 8-9
Biggest X factor: Offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey’s success in Year 2
Von Miller’s health and availability is also a factor in the Bills’ ability to get over the postseason hump and win the AFC, if not the Super Bowl. But after the offense was inconsistent last year for various reasons, especially in the second half of the season, Dorsey is on the same page with quarterback Josh Allen and taking some of the pressure off the shoulders of quarterback will be important. For the first time since drafting Allen, the Bills invested a first-round pick in an offensive player, tight end Dalton Kincaid, and how Dorsey integrates him into the offense is worth watching. look. — Alaina Getzenberg