The 2023 Baltimore Orioles – in first place in the American League, on pace to record 102 wins, and have secured their first playoff spot since 2016 – clearly come into their own this time. They are loaded with young superstar talent, and are set to contend in the AL East for years to come.
Most of all though, they are extremely clutch.
All those stats are good, but perhaps the greatest demonstrator of the Orioles’ clutch skills can be found elsewhere.
How clutch are the Orioles really?
MLB Fangraphs has clutch statistics that determine “how much better or worse a player does in high-leverage situations than he would in a context-neutral environment.” They determine this number by taking a team’s Win Probability Added, dividing that by the teams Average Leverage Index, and subtracting the whole quotient of the team’s Situational Wins.
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In the last 10 seasons, the 2023 Orioles have the third-highest clutch rating in MLB, behind only the 2021. Seattle Mariners and 2016 Texas Rangers.
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How does this affect the Orioles’ World Series aspirations?
The 2021 Mariners (90-72) didn’t even make it to the postseason. While the 2016 Texas Rangers (95-67) earned the No. 1 seed in the American League, they were swept in the ALDS by the Toronto Blue Jays. That doesn’t bode well for Baltimore’s avian club.
Worse, there are several poor teams near the top of the clutch leaderboards as well: The 2023 Colorado Rockies (56-94) have the sixth-highest clutch rating in the last 10 years. The 2023 Washington Nationals (66-85) ranked 15th.
That said, the 2018 Red Sox (fifth), 2015 Kansas City Royals (seventh), 2014 San Francisco Giants (19th), and 2014 Kansas City Royals (20th) all won or reached their respective World Series ‘.
That statistic alone doesn’t tell us enough. But if we filter out the teams with a Win Probability Added of less than 8.0, the list starts to look better. Out of all 300 teams, only 13 recorded a Win Probability Added of 8.0 or more and a net-positive clutch team. Two of them haven’t finished their seasons yet (the 2023 Orioles and 2023 Atlanta Braves), so we can’t really determine their success.
Here are the remaining eleven:
- 2019 Los Angeles Dodgers (lost in NLDS, 3-2 to WS champions Washington)
- 2022 Los Angeles Dodgers (lost in NLDS, 3-2 at San Diego)
- 2018 Boston Red Sox (won the WS)
- 2014 Los Angeles Angels (lost in ALDS, 3-0 to AL champions Kansas City)
- 2022 New York Mets (lost in NLWC, 2-1 at San Diego)
- 2021 San Francisco Giants (lost in NLDS, 3-2 at Los Angeles)
- 2016 Texas Rangers (lost in ALDS, 3-0 to Toronto)
- 2019 Atlanta Braves (lost in NLDS, 3-2 at St. Louis)
- 2019 Washington Nationals (won WS)
- 2019 New York Yankees (lost in ALCS, 4-2 to AL champions Houston)
- 2017 Los Angeles Dodgers (lost in WS, 4-3 to WS champions Houston)
As you can see, the results are somewhat varied, but most point against the Orioles’ 2023 World Series hopes. Only two of these teams have won the World Series. Only two have made it past the Divisional Series. Seven of these eleven teams lost in their first playoff round.
The Orioles have been one of MLB’s biggest lovable underdogs in years, and it’s probably safe to assume that most fans would love to see them achieve this level of success after years of living in the basement. History may not be on the Orioles’ side, however, when the MLB postseason begins on Oct. 3.