September is heating up at the Solheim Cup as eight players from the United States team and another four from the European side are all in the 144-player field for the Kroger Queen City Championship presented by P&G. Kenwood Country Country Club in Cincinnati, Ohio is once again the host venue for the second year for this premiere event.
Kenwood Country Club is a beautiful 36-hole facility. The Kendale and Kenview Courses were recently remodeled during the pandemic, and aside from all the Barbie banter, these two layouts are of the same championship caliber. The Kendale Course has a par-72 scorecard that measures 6,548 yards. A traditional allocation, there are four par 3, four par 5 and 10 par 4. Ally Ewing won the inaugural edition last year at 22-under, just one shot better than Xiyu Lin.
The two are ranked against four in the top 10 and 15 in the top 30 of the Rolex Women’s World Golf Rankings. The top 65 and ties play out over the weekend for a $2 million purse and while a $300,000 winner’s check will get your attention, a win means more than anything else. 10 events left this season.
With such limited history, how do you pick a winner? Thanks to the partnership between KPMG and the LPGA Tour, there are more than enough statistics to analyze. Eight players have odds lower than +2500 (25-1) and those “favorites” are the first to attract attention. To help decide which of them will take the Kroger crown this Sunday, let’s look back to 2022. The Kendale Course has 68 bunkers, four holes where water enters, and an average green size. of 6,000 sq/ft.
The top 10 finishers of the 2022 edition of the event include 13 players whose performances illustrate some significant trends. Scoring is the priority as the top five averaged 21 birdies or better all week and the top 10 is just shy of 19. The race to 20-under is real and aggressive play is rewarded. Nine of last year’s top 10 averaged over 260 yards off the tee and hit 84% of their fairways.
From there, the same group gained nearly five hits on the field in their iron game. Their average distance to the hole was 22 feet 4 inches and their putts per GIR average was 1.69. We start to see some serious trends in the play of the contenders when you consider that the top 10 also get an average of approximately five strokes of the putter. Attack with your irons and convert with the flat stick. A recipe for success comes in focus.
Minjee Lee, Ruoning Yin and Andrea Lee all rank in the top 11 in strokes gained approach and an average of 25 feet or less near the hole. That scoring combination is strong, and Yin (+1400 (14-1)) has finished third in his last two starts, largely thanks to his putter. He averaged 1.79 putts per green in regulation leading to 40% of his rounds finishing in the 60s. Lin and Charley Hull also match that complement of flatstick skills and scoring ability. Lin (+1100 (11-1)) is the tournament favorite because he finished runner-up to Ewing in 2022 at 21-under.
Ewing, Lin and the rest of the top 10 averaged 4.7 strokes in 5s. Capitalizing on those and creating as many sub-par scoring opportunities as possible is another angle to consider. Two-time United States Solheim Cup team member Jennifer Kupcho (+3300 (33-1)) averaged four birdies per round fueled by a 4.54 scoring average on the par 5s. Three others with average scores below 4.6 on par 5s and a birdie rate above four are Hull, Lin and Olivia Cowan.
If you prefer longshots, Cowan’s last three starts include a T9 at the AIG Women’s Open, a solo fifth appearance in Ireland at the ISPS, and a T12 last week in Portland. At +10000 (100-1), he has the skills to match Kenwood. A week ago, we relied heavily on Linn Grant and Yin and both finished in the top seven at the Portland Classic showing how this research can be valuable.
The LPGA takes a week off before the Solheim Cup. This is the last time we will see a full-field event until the end of September. Keep an eye on these players and feel free to support a couple. Enhance the viewing experience by committing to a weekend bet. It may only be a couple of dollars, but the memories that come with the win will be priceless.
Keith Stewart is an award-winning PGA Professional. He covers the LPGA and PGA Tour for Sports Illustrated, The Sporting News, LPGA, and PGA TOUR. If you’re looking to improve your golf skills and love the inside scoop on the game, check out his weekly newsletter called Read the Line.