There was no specific moment when the New York Knicks reclaimed their status as a worthy organization in the NBA. But coming off their most impressive campaign in at least a decade, heading into a critical 2023-24 season with some significant cards stacked in their favour, they finally look like they are.
For the past quarter century, New York has been haunted by a spiritual devotion to quick decision-making so strong it makes you wonder if the general manager spends every day channeling. George Costanza made several attempts to get fired by the Yankees.
In one word: chaos. From Isiah Thomas disastrous reign on Donnie Walsh’s shocking resignation on The sudden firing of Glen Grunwald on let Jeremy Lin go to give Phil Jackson the keys to thinks Derek Fisher should be a head coach with the drafting of Kevin Knox II, the Knicks’ life became a series of embarrassing and compulsive detours, both on and off the court. In other words: failure. Manhandling the Cavaliers last year in Round 1 was the Knicks’ second playoff series win since 2000.
Most of their problems are self-inflicted, and anyone who doesn’t pay much attention to the NBA knows who the common denominator is. but with some of James Dolan’s attention recently directed elsewhere, the team has seen a fairly steady transition toward respectability over the past few seasons under Leon Rose, William Wesley, Tom Thibodeau, and Scott Perry (who is no longer with the team). “He put a lot of faith and trust in our basketball operations,” Rose said the New York Times when asked about Dolan’s fearsome reputation.
Freedom does not hurt. The Knicks entered the playoffs last year with a top-three offense that relied on winning the possession game—lots of offensive rebounds, few turnovers, working at a snail’s pace—and then hoping that Julius Randle and/or Jalen Brunson can overcome spacing issues and become anodynes in the middle of the court.
New York is over one of the lowest effective field goal percentages for the ninth consecutive seasonisolated at a higher rate than every team except the Mavericks, and ranked died end of help rate. It’s not a championship formula—especially with a below-average defense and no top-20 players—but the Knicks are strong enough to make it work. They struck gold at the trade deadline when they brought in Josh Hart and then made a smart choice this summer by using the midlevel on Donte DiVincenzo.
Thibodeau’s ability to consistently execute his in-game strategy is obviously important, but their recognition on the court is less important than any big picture of how the organization will receive. pATIENCE and discipline (rather than opportunism) to get where it is: The team is competitive, confident, and exciting—and, for a variety of reasons, it has a realistic way to get a superstar in the near future.
A few years later, the plan was unfathomable. The Knicks won 37 games in a disastrous 2021-22 season, which included the no-brainer decision to give up a first-round pick for Cam Reddish. They then put the 2022 draft on hold, threw a nine-figure contract at Brunson, and — while benefiting from their own foresight and some serendipity — refused to trade their most valuable asset for Donovan Mitchell, the type of dynamic showstopper (who was born in Westchester County) this fan base is dying to root for.
Fast-forward to today, after the Knicks beat Mitchell in a lopsided playoff series this past spring, and their restraint makes sense: Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid are now publicly expressing varying degrees of discomfort with teams they’ve ever played for, and the Knicks are an attractive destination with a manageable cap sheet, a box of coveted draft picks to trade, and the biggest market in the world as their backdrop.
Mise en place is important when dating one of the top basketball players in the world. The Knicks understand that, even though many of the ingredients that flavor the stew are no longer around when it’s time to serve the meal. For now, though, all the vibes are encouraging. Brunson is a star. Quentin Grimes, Hart, and DiVincenzo are do-whatever-necessary grinders with skills that expand beyond the roles they’re likely to have in a winning situation. Mitchell Robinson is a game-changing interior presence (when healthy). Isaiah Hartenstein and Immanuel Quickley are two of the more reliable bench players in the entire league. RJ Barrett is only 23 years old!
And then there’s Randle, a productive albeit flawed stretch of the floor who miraculously made two All-NBA teams the last three years. His accomplishments have been marred by a pair of playoff flameouts, that poor 2021-22 season, and his unfortunate tendency to become his own worst enemy. As a first option, Randle created a lead ceiling for his team; there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical about his fit next to someone like Embiid or Giannis—inside presences who need as much space as possible—but it would be interesting to see them together if not excluded Randle in an initial trade. If their pairing doesn’t work, swapping him for more suitable parts isn’t worth it that complicated. This is a multiple-time All-Star in his prime, is on a team-friendly contract, and averaged 25 points, 10 rebounds, and four assists last year. There is a market here.
As far as trade chips go, what matters is draft equity. The Knicks have all of their own first-round picks and four more first through 2026 (with various protections, including Milwaukee’s in 2025 if it falls between no. 5 and no. 30). Owning their future is smart business. On top of that, there’s a wide variety of contracts and transferable salaries, including Grimes, Barrett, and Randle, plus Evan Fournier’s expiring deal.
Landing a superstar is far from guaranteed, and even the most perfect strategy won’t succeed without luck. New York’s path to where it is today — let alone where it wants to go — has not been linear or smooth. But the Knicks carried themselves with more confidence than desperation. Most of their actions are purposeful and indicate a front office that understands how valuable persistence is is to establish and then see through a vision—even if the team is facing a storm, of which the Knicks have weathered some since 2020.
This season, they won’t be better than the Celtics or Bucks, and will swamp the rest of the Eastern Conference. There’s no real reason to put New York on a level above the Cavaliers, Heat, Sixers, Hawks, Nets, Bulls, or Raptors, with the Magic and Pacers nipping at everyone’s heels. But even if they don’t make the playoffs any further than they did last season, this year’s results are less important than their commitment to resilience and the same unsavory culture that ingratiates itself with restless superstars watching well themselves as the missing piece.
Four years ago, the Clippers and Nets found themselves where the Knicks are now, squeezing all they could out of a plucky, overachieving, inadequate roster built to support top-10 talent which they don’t have. Both teams were in good position when Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Kawhi Leonard, and Paul George became available.
It is very difficult to predict what the NBA will look like six months from now, let alone a year from now. But a plausible best-case scenario in New York would be for Embiid to demand a trade after another spring slump as the Knicks continue last year’s momentum and make a lot of noise in the playoffs.
One can imagine some incredible trade packages being thrown Daryl Morey’s way, but for the sake of argument, let’s say Embiid made it clear that New York City is where he wants to be, along with Rose, the his former agent, at the helm. Embiid has two years left on his contract, so he could muffle what could be some truly wild offers.
A package with some combination of Barrett, Robinson, Grimes, and Quickley and, say, five first-round picks isn’t bad if your hand is forced. To make this hypothetical dream one step further, Mitchell could become an unrestricted free agent in 2025, the same summer Randle and Brunson could also opt out of their deals. Having a 31 year old Embiid and then using cap space to sign a 29 year old Mitchell is not impossible! (To be clear, there is a world where Brunson was a better player in the past and Mitchell has been reductive, but if the Knicks fail for several years in a row, then signing a four-time All- Star might be the upgrade they need. )
Again, it’s foolish to make a prediction too far down the road. So much can and will happen between now and then. The window to secure a star isn’t open forever, which brings us to even fewer scenarios that could derail New York’s strategy.
If Embiid and Antetokounmpo take themselves out of the equation, New York will be stuck without much of a plan B beyond waiting for another disgruntled star to ask. It’s all a delicate balancing act. Unless Barrett makes a big leap, the Knicks will likely tread water as a mid-major challenger. By themselves, that’s what you get for competence and professionalism. The risk is that it doesn’t matter what the Knicks do, though. And given their recent history as one of America’s worst business properties, they should be happy where they are, full of hope for what they can become.