The Defensive Rebirth of Fernando Tatis Jr. Painting the Road to the MVP Future

If I have a criticism of Shohei Ohtani, it’s that he single-handedly undermines baseball’s famous parlor discussions. Honestly, this is the only valid criticism of Ohtani I can think of. But questions like “Which player would you want to start a franchise with?” or “Who is the most talented ballplayer you have ever seen?” it’s less fun now than it was a decade ago. The first person to answer simply said, “Ohtani,” and there was a moment of awkward silence until someone piped up and asked if anyone was watching the new season of BILLION.

Ohtani was sidelined, Fernando Tatis Jr. is on my short list of the most talented or dynamic baseball players I’ve ever witnessed good fortune. In the past, I’ve compared his physicality to a 3-4 outside linebacker, but watching him scramble around the diamond is like watching an alien with a hidden object to he can’t get out of the crowd. If that’s his goal, Tatis doesn’t do a good job of mixing.

When Tatis returned from his injury- and suspension-enforced absence, he found Xander Bogaerts playing shortstop for a team that already has more shortstops than it can use. When it became clear that Tatis was on his way out, probably permanently, I felt great sadness. That’s not to say he’s a great shortstop. As a rookie, he had the worst fielding percentage and second-worst defensive WAR of any of the 27 players who spent more than 700 innings at the position. He made some defensive strides in 2020, and if his ’21 season hadn’t been derailed in part by a shoulder injury that forced a move to the outfield, then the PED suspension, then Bogaerts, etc. , perhaps the experience could mold him into an outstanding defensive shortstop.

But there’s a silver lining to this: the physical gifts that made Tatis such an exciting shortstop have turned him into an exceptional defensive outfielder. Apparently that’s what happens; This is one of the fastest players in baseball with one of the strongest throwing arms and has no compunction about flinging himself around the field in pursuit of a hit ball. And moving to the outfield will give him more time to react to the ball off the bat and reduce the complexity of the plays he has to make. When it comes to running, catching, and throwing, almost no one can do any of those things better than Tatis.

The AthleticPadres beat writer Dennis Lin asked this question two months ago, basically when it became reasonable to wonder at the strength: “Fernando Tatis Jr. Is the best defensive right fielder in baseball?” Padres manager Bob Melvin compared Tatis, who at the time had about 70 career professional starts in right field, to Ichiro Suzuki and Mookie Betts.

Tatis has surprisingly good control. He had nine opportunities to catch what Baseball Savant calls a four-star fly ball, or one with a catch probability between 26% and 50%. He hauled eight of them. Of the 93 outfielders on Baseball Savant’s catch probability leaderboard, the only one with a higher ratio of those catches is Cody Bellinger, with just two four-stars trying to play most of his games in tiny Wrigley Field. But the routine, or a little harder than usual, is what makes Tatis angry when he’s in the dirt. Not like that anymore. On fly balls with a catch probability between 26% and 95%, Tatis was 49-for-52. Only Bellinger, by a third of a percentage point, has a better ratio in catching games.

Exactly 100 players have appeared on all three of Baseball Savant’s leaderboards for sprint speed, outfield arm strength, and outfield jump. Tatis is one of only four outfielders in the top 20 in all three categories, plus OAA.

He gets along well; Rodríguez led all outfielders in the OAA this season, and Kiermaier is one of the best defenders of his generation.

Here’s the fun part: Tatis has speed and arm strength the likes of which few outfielders can match, but after a little crunching of the numbers, it looks like he’s still pretty raw. Although he is fine now, he can get better.

Baseball Savant breaks down the outfield jump into two parts: reaction, which is the distance covered in the first 1.5 seconds after the ball is hit; and explosion, spaced 1.5 seconds after that. Tatis is top-10 in burst but only average in reaction distance and route efficiency. Even being average after playing less than a season in the outfield in the pros is pretty impressive, but if Tatis wants to, he can force some legs away from his physical gifts by refining his game. outside.

There is also the potential for a late move to center field. Tatis could play there if the Padres don’t have a good center fielder Trent Grisham. (If Tatis is Betts, Grisham is Jackie Bradley Jr. in this metaphor.)

Tatis is the only corner outfielder in the top 10 in the OAA. The only corner outfielders ahead of him in sprint speed are Perkins and the Arizona duo of Jake McCarthy and Corbin Carroll, both of which are in the bottom five for maximum arm strength. Tatis was 15th in the outfield jump, behind 10 center fielders, Perkins, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Seiya Suzukiand Jake Fraley. There is no doubt in my mind that if Grisham leaves the Padres, Tatis will be a great center fielder.

As the Padres try to corner the shortstop market, my big question about Tatis is whether his ability to defend an outfield corner will be wasted; it is possible to create real defensive value there, but it is very difficult. He seems to be one of the few players with that ability.

The only question now is whether his bat will return to pre-suspension form. (The best compliment I can give Tatis is that he is such a good all-around player that I would wear him a little more for his offensive production if he has a 115 wRC+ and an outside shot at -goes 30-30.) From 2019 to ’21, he was one of the best hitters in baseball at any position. This year, he was just above average. He still gave the Padres better offensive production than your garden variety right fielder, but for the first three seasons of his career, he was the best offensive shortstop in baseball by a large margin. That is not the case this time.

There are plenty of reasons to hope for an offensive rebound at that 150 wRC+ level. Tatis is coming off a season that featured a motorcycle accident, multiple surgeries, and no meaningful games played. His xwOBA is 45 points lower than his wOBA, which is the fifth-largest negative difference among the 269 hitters with at least 2.1 plate appearances per team game. So a lot of it could be rust and/or bad batted ball luck. It is also worth noting that Tatis is only 24 years old, or in other words, six weeks older than Heston Kjerstad.

Despite everything he’s been through, self-inflicted and otherwise, Tatis is one of the few players with the potential to be one of the game’s best on both sides of the ball. And when that potential comes up, just ask Betts o Mike Trout; an MVP award usually follows.