Has the Player Empowerment Era in the NBA hit the ceiling?
That’s what I’m thinking as the Damian Lillard and James Harden situations drag into prolonged standoffs between player and team, with no sign of resolutions anytime soon.
While the details of each case are different, they have three commonalities: a player requesting a trade, specifying a specific team as his desired destination (Miami for Lillard, the Clippers for Harden) and doing this despite recently tying themselves to their current teams for longer.
Harden opted out of the final year of his $35.6 million contract in June, when he would have become an unrestricted free agent. Lillard signed a two-year, $122 million extension with Portland in July 2022; he would be an unrestricted free agent this coming summer without him, and likely have a lot more leverage as a result.
It’s all part of a larger story arc, as the last few years have seen more aggressive efforts by players to navigate themselves into their preferred situations despite the suboptimal leverage. In the past, only players in the last year of their contract – or cool middle of the time – who pushed their way like this. And one time, they make a list of teams, not a specific place they ask to be sent.
However, players continue to succeed in this despite the worsening leverage positions in which these maneuvers are attempted – even with more years left on their deal or fewer teams on The List, they still get their way.
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However, it is important to note the difference between recent events and what is happening now. It’s one thing for Anthony Davis to ask for a trade to the Lakers when they have cap room to sign him immediately after the season. On the other hand, it would be one thing for Paul George to ask for a trade with the Clippers even though he still had a few years left on his contract in Oklahoma City, when the Clippers were motivated enough to pay for his services at the time because he I’ll take Kawhi Leonard.
It’s another to, say, ask for a trade to the Heat with only four years left on your deal and no deadline to force a quick decision. Or asking to be sent to the Clippers, and only the Clippers, when they don’t have much to send for Philly right now.
The mindset driving this change can be described in three words: Get that bag. Elite players realize they can navigate themselves to desired destinations without having to become free agents. As a result, they can reduce their financial risk by continuing to sign multiple extensions once they’re eligible, knowing they can keep their exits later.
In theory, at least.
In practice, this approach has one cruel fly in the ointment: The team doesn’t have to sell you anywhere, at all, let alone the only team on your wish list.
The team can do this because it doesn’t like the other team’s offer, or because it thinks it can do better if it waits, or because it doesn’t want to. the Why hardly matters: The important part is that the player is under contract, so if the team doesn’t play ball with a trade demand, the player can’t do much about it.
We saw parts of this play two years ago when the Ben Simmons trade demand took forever. We got another taste last summer when Kevin Durant’s trade demand ended with his return to the Nets … at least for a while.
Durant, like Lillard, had several years left on his contract and didn’t get his wings until a new owner took over the Suns days before the trade deadline and was immediately dealt to Brooklyn all it wants is a cherry on top. Simmons, on the other hand, is a test case in whether an NBA front office can afford to let a trade demand fester over time instead of taking pennies on the dollar to get it done. The Sixers’ answer was the latter, and ironically, it ended up being a steal in a trade to get Harden.
Once again, Harden helped create Philly’s current disruption by completely kissing his high-leverage opportunity earlier this summer. Harden could have been an unrestricted free agent and threatened to leave the Sixers without pay – a much talked about reunion with the Rockets, for example, which has been rumored for several months.
It may be a bluff, but it’s also an obvious way for Harden to force an opt-in-and-trade with the Clippers. Whatever expiring nonentities the Clips offer Philly for Harden is probably better than losing him for nothing. (In case you’re wondering, the sign-and-trade of Harden to the Clips wouldn’t have worked under the new CBA without a significant salary drop.)
Now, the leverage is gone. However, Harden’s opting in leaves the Sixers highly motivated to play the long game; the trade deadline is the only future leverage point, and it’s still six months away. At that point, more water could pass under the bridge and other teams’ situations could change, leading Philly to a more plausible end game than the dead ends currently available. The Sixers have seen this before with Simmons.
Additionally, the Sixers reversed themselves by making the worst-case scenario of losing Harden for nothing in 2024 free agency a viable option. Philly may have max cap room — in fact, more than max room — after the season and will likely offer an extension for Tyrese Maxey to keep that going.
It’s a risky play but can it bring another star to Philly? While extensions are likely to take many names off the market before next summer, for now, George, Leonard, Pascal Siakam, Jrue Holiday and OG Anunoby will be unrestricted free agents on July 1 .
(Counterpoint: If all players extend, the three best free agents on the market will be … Harden, Maxey and Tobias Harris.)
Like Simmons, Harden’s best plan in the meantime is not to hold back — resulting in the team holding back on salary — but instead to show up and be a disruptive, exhausting pain that the team will do almost everything it can. take him away. Replicating Durant’s “Insult the GM” tactic is a start, but it will take a sustained effort.
Alas, it’s a bit of a risk if you’re in your age 34 season and on an expiring contract. Harden’s ideal end game here is to play GOOD and securing one last giant bag, without rolling into a 9 am shootaround straight from the club.
As for Lillard, it’s a rare Band-Aid tear after the Blazers spent the last two years pretending it was their best move outside of trading him. Now that they got Scoot Henderson in the draft, they have a backcourt of the future and a clear runway to rebuild. Lillard, if anything, hindered that by making Portland ALSO well … something the Blazers solved last season only through brazen spring tanking and good lottery luck.
So, trading Lillard is clearly a logical move for the Blazers … but in their timeline, not Lillard’s, and not necessarily the team Lillard chose. Like Harden, Lillard’s leverage is basically limited to threatening to be an unstoppable jerk if he’s not in the city of his choice, as he still has three years left before he becomes a free agent. .
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Plus, the Blazers aren’t in win-now mode like Philly. As a result, “Trade me or else” is quickly greeted with a nod and “Or what?” And in this case, Lillard holding back would actually be helpful for the Blazers, as he’s probably the only thing standing between the Blazers and a high lottery pick. Portland has time on its side in waiting for the best offer, whether it drags out at the trade deadline or beyond. Lillard gave up his opportunity for leverage when he signed the extension.
How will it end? We really don’t know. Durant and Simmons eventually got their wings, but then suffered half seasons in Philly and Brooklyn, respectively. Lillard and Harden seem to have limited trade markets beyond the teams they target, which could help them eventually get what they want. On the other hand, there is no rule requiring the Blazers and Sixers to trade them to their preferred destinations … or at all.
The last few years have seen many star players find themselves out of situations they wanted out of, but few have as little leverage as Harden and Lillard are seeing right now. How this game can be interesting case studies on the boundaries of the Player Empowerment Era…
(Photo of Damian Lillard and James Harden: Eric Hartline / USA Today)