Fantasy hockey draft – Goalie strategy guide

Victoria MatiasFantasy HockeySeptember 14, 2023, 12:00 PM ET6 Minute Reading

Jake Oettinger of the Dallas Stars.Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

There’s no trick to filling this position on your fantasy roster, not with so many important categories at stake. For example, ESPN’s standard game rewards wins, saves, shutouts, and — an important takeaway here — punishing goals-allowed. To return to my evergreen illustration, a goalie who stops 28 of 30 shots in a 4-2 win earns an impressively valuable haul of 5.6 fantasy points. On the other side of fantasy, allowing five goals on 31 shots in a 5-4 loss results in a net of -4.8 points. In almost any form of fantasy hockey competition, there is no greater potential glory/pain swing. Not even close.

So in the usual summary, ESPN’s ideal fantasy goalie plays/wins the most games, while allowing a few goals on more shots. The odd shutout was a happy, valuable bonus. Those who managed to draft top-tier characters to start and / or fiddle successfully throughout the season, should stay in contention until the end. As the well-worn saying goes, while you can’t win everything with well-imagined goals, you’re guaranteed to fail without them.

strategy

As a perennial habit, this year’s goal is to pick my No. 1 fantasy netminder early in standard ESPN leagues. Not before a forward of the elite ilk like Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl, but ahead of the next, bigger glut, of excellent fantasy skaters. Led by Dallas’s No. 1, my current top three features below. Securing my No. 2 netminder will be a priority two or three rounds later, when more options are likely to remain available, depending on how the draft unfolds.

Once my one-two goalie duo is secured, I’m more than willing to roll the dice on padding my netminding outfit with an underrated mid-tier asset and/or high-ceilinged sleeper. This is when a strong member of a recognized tandem is more likely to get my attention. These candidates can be replaced, if necessary, if under-the-radar candidates for the position exit in the middle of the season, which EVER will happen. But locking in my G1 and G2 early in drafts remains a reasonable priority.

Final advice: Don’t draft goalies on bad teams. Even good people, no matter how tempting. They will destroy your fantasy heart.

I like top-tier goalies

Jake Oettinger, Dallas Stars (No. 2 goaltender)

He is the real deal. After taking full possession of the Stars net, the 24-year-old is ready and eager to equal, or better, his performance/numbers from this past season. Taking those numbers into account amounts to a 37-11-11 record and a 2.35 GAA – no small feat. Still can though. Especially since this Dallas team may be in stronger overall shape right now, with the nod to the addition of veteran Matt Duchene. That Oettinger has also been solid in the more limited game of his two previous campaigns also adds to his appeal. Only Linus Ullmark and Alexandar Georgiev accumulated more fantasy points for their respective owners in 2022-23. With all due respect to that pair, Oettinger is my top fantasy game target this fall.

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Mid-level targets

Jacob Markstrom, Calgary Flames (No. 18 goaltender)

The go-to starter for the Calgary Flames is a great goaltender coming off a bad year. A very poor campaign, considering it was only last season that Markstrom lost the Vezina to Igor Shesterkin. Now there’s a new coach in town in Ryan Huska, along with fresh-faced management, and the smell of revitalization is in the air. While there are some kinks on the roster to determine who wants to stay or not, the Flames are still a solid hockey team competing in, arguably, the NHL’s weakest division. The recent positive news about contract extension talks with top center Elias Lindholm — a not-dead conversation, apparently — offers a bit more optimism on that front. I would happily invite Markstrom to my fantasy squad as the No. 2 in deeper leagues or No. 3 in shallower competition.

Joonas Korpisalo, Ottawa Senators (No. 21 goaltender)

If the confidence shown by Korpisalo through his five-year, $20-million deal doesn’t deter you, know that the ever-improving Senators are a much better club this year. For starters, Vladimir Tarasenko is on board, Josh Norris is healthy, Jakob Chychrun is getting more used to playing in Ottawa, and Jake Sanderson is about to show us all what he’s really got. In the final year of his twenties, this is a ripe opportunity for the former Blue Jacket to prove that he has the chops to be a top-tier No. 1 in the NHL. We got a taste of what Korpisalo was really capable of on a more quality Los Angeles club last year, and he looked great (7-3-1, 2.13 GAA, .921 SV%).

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Key sleepers

Devon Levi, Buffalo Sabers (No. 28 goaltender)

I bought the premature hype. Sure, he’s only 21 years old, and the jump from college to the NHL is always full of challenging obstacles, and A limited seven-game resume is hard to judge, but this young kid has me convinced he’s ready to give it a shot. More than bright and incredibly determined, Levi has been working his caboose this summer with the single-minded goal of getting the Sabers out of camp. Hardly a guarantee with Eric Comrie and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen also in the netminder mix, but not out of the realm of possibility either. I’m all for taking a swing with this sleeping as part of a Buffalo club heading in the right direction.

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Pheonix CopleyLos Angeles Kings (No. 30 goaltender)

The rock constant at the crease for the Kings through 2022-23, Copley helped the team win games to the tune of 24-6-3. That’s the gig; win more often than not. Now with New York’s Jonathan Quick, the Senators’ sweater-wearing Korpisalo, and Philly’s Cal Petersen, Copley will just have to hold off Ottawa export Cam Talbot for the starting crease in LA. I like his chances. I also appreciate the current makeup of Todd McLellan’s club, playing in the Pacific, including rookie center Pierre-Luc Dubois, semi-rookie defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov, and up-and-comer Brandt Clarke. I would take Copley as a fantasy sleeper at any given opportunity.

Late-round picks to consider

Laurent Brossoit, Winnipeg Jets (No. 62 goaltender)

First of all, the Jets would do well to trade Connor Hellebuyck from Winnipeg midway through the season, before their current No. If the relationship is truly broken, this serves as a better outlet than going without anything. Then there’s Brossoit’s own performance to consider, which was better than average, despite declining play, for Vegas last run. The Winnipeg familiarity for the once-again Jets doesn’t hurt either. Also, I don’t feel that this club, with new additions from LA and a healthy Cole Perfetti again, is in bad shape. Despite the large number of variables to consider, through a fantasy lens, Brossoit should be ranked higher.

Avoid drafts of current value

Linus Ullmark, Boston Bruins (No. 7 goaltender)

As a fantasy investment manager, unicorn seasons make me uncomfortable. Which is exactly what we experienced from Ullmark and the Bruins as a collective. Even if Patrice Bergeron (retired) and David Krejci (also retired) were on board, there was no chance Boston would win 65 games — or even come close to that number — for a second straight season. And after a spirited few solid enough NHL campaigns, Ullmark’s own atypical showing feels remarkably consistent. In addition, tandem partner Jeremy Swayman also wants to play. I’m not suggesting you don’t invest in the reigning Vezina winner – he’s undoubtedly one of the best in the league – just don’t jump off the fantasy blocks too early.

Vitek Vanecek, New Jersey Devils (No. 12 goaltender)

There is no reason to believe that Akira Schmid won’t start 35 – 40 games for the Devils this season, if not more. The better of the two netminders in New Jersey in 2022-23, Schmid (a sleeping favorite of mine) impressed league fans before hitting the wall against Carolina in the second round of the postseason. Small sample size (27 NHL games total), but that’s to be expected from any 22-year-old making his true NHL debut. There is also talk of the Cup-pursuant Devils thinking about bringing in a more prolific netminder from outside the organization. Either way, Vanecek doesn’t appeal to me as an early goalie who gets any and all fantasy competition.

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