This time last year, the Brewers found themselves in an unfamiliar position: on the outside looking in on the eve of postseason play. Milwaukee has been a playoff team in each of the last four years, coming within one game of reaching the World Series in 2018.
But in 2023, the Brewers returned to the tournament. And with one of the best pitching staffs, top to bottom, in baseball, they’re looking for a deep run this October.
Milwaukee’s opponent in the best-of-three National League Wild Card Series, which takes place at American Family Field beginning Tuesday at 7:08 pm ET on ESPN2, is no pushover. The D-backs are in the postseason for the first time since 2017, and with a young and exciting core, Arizona is looking to surprise the way they did early in the regular season.
So, which team has the edge at each position on the diamond, and which team will advance to the NL Division Series against the Dodgers? Here’s a breakdown:
engaged in the capture
The Brewers didn’t get much offensive production from the catcher position in 2022, so they traded All-Star William Contreras from the Braves with the hope that he would represent a major upgrade. He didn’t disappoint, hitting .291/.369/.459 with 17 homers. Defensively, Contreras has improved significantly behind the plate.
The D-backs made a big trade of their own last offseason to land some catching depth, sending Daulton Varsho to Toronto in exchange for top catching prospect Gabriel Moreno and outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Moreno had a strong rookie campaign, especially defensively, where he led all MLB catchers in Defensive Runs Saved and Caught Stealing Above Average, threw out half the runners who attempted to steal against him (16 of 32). Offensively, he held his own, hitting .284/.339/.408 with seven homers in 111 games.
It’s a close one, but we’ll give the nod to the more experienced backstop with more pop at the plate.
First base
The D-backs’ Christian Walker continues to quietly put up big numbers at the plate while maintaining his status as one of the best defensive first basemen in the game. The 32-year-old belted 33 homers with a career-high 103 RBI and an .830 OPS during the regular season while leading all first basemen in Outs Above Average.
After a big year for Milwaukee in 2022, when he launched a career-best 35 homers, Rowdy Tellez is back this season. Limited to 106 games due to injury, he produced a .215/.291/.376 slash line with 13 homers. He really struggled in September, hitting .189 with one extra-base hit and 13 strikeouts in 41 plate appearances.
While Tellez was hurt, the Brewers acquired veteran Carlos Santana from the Pirates. Santana proved to be a solid addition, hitting 11 homers in 53 games before the stretch.
Second base
Brice Turang had a strong defensive season at second base in his rookie campaign for the Brewers. But offensively, he is a light hitter with a .585 OPS in 137 games.
Arizona’s Ketel Marte is closer to an average second baseman, but he’s one of the best offensive players at the position. He hit 25 homers and posted an .844 OPS for the D-backs in his age-29 season this year, and he certainly provides superior value here.
Shortstop
The D-backs saw their 23-year-old shortstop make big strides this season, where he was named an All-Star for the first time. Geraldo Perdomo had a .787 OPS at the All-Star break, but crashed in the second half to the tune of a .214/.322/.297 slash line. However, there is reason for optimism about his future.
When Willy Adames was 23, he was in his first full Major League season, playing for the Rays. Five years later, he has established himself as a solid all-around shortstop for the Brewers. In 2022, he blasted a career-high 31 homers and a .756 OPS. His ’23 performance at the plate wasn’t as impressive, but he still hit 24 homers and drove in 80 runs. He also has postseason experience — this is his fourth trip to the playoffs.
Third base
Looking to make a late-season upgrade at the hot corner, the Brewers rolled the dice on veteran third baseman Josh Donaldson, who was released by the Yankees on Aug. 29. The 37-year-old was sidelined because of a right which calf and his The production of the plate is small in New York.
Donaldson got off to a relatively strong start with his new club when he came off the injured list, belting three homers in his first nine games. But since then, he’s 2-for-19 with two doubles.
The D-backs don’t have much production from third base, though, but they are younger and more reliable at the position with Emmanuel Rivera. The 27-year-old has also been limited by injury this year and his offensive performance has been lacking in the regular season, but he has been solid defensively.
Left field
Entering the 2023 season, there is still a legitimate question as to whether Christian Yelich can recapture something similar to his plate form from 2018-19. He was the NL’s best hitter in that span, winning the MVP Award in ’18 and finishing runner-up in ’19. But Yelich has put together his best offensive campaign since then, posting an .816 OPS with 19 homers and 27 steals this year.
The D-backs, on the other hand, got solid production from left field thanks to the newly acquired Gurriel and later, Tommy Pham, who they acquired before the Trade Deadline from the Mets. The two split time between left field and designated hitter — Gurriel finished with a .772 OPS and a career-high 24 homers, and Pham had a solid year overall. an, posted a .774 OPS with 16 homers between New York and Arizona.
Between superior offensive production and more postseason experience — Yelich has played nearly as many playoff games (16) as Gurriel and Pham combined (17) — the appeal goes to the former MVP here.
Center field
Arizona’s Alek Thomas is an excellent defensive center fielder with a strong shutout, but his bat leaves a lot to be desired – he’s hitting .230 with a .647 OPS in 126 games.
On the other side, rookie Garrett Mitchell hasn’t had much of a chance to show what he can do thanks to a shoulder injury that required surgery three weeks into the season. He beat the odds by making it back before the end of the regular season, returning Thursday against the Cardinals.
Whether Mitchell makes the postseason roster and what his role will be is uncertain, but given his impressive play when he’s on the field — he made the Opening Day roster and hit three home runs — Milwaukee’s series opener against the Mets — he could be a difference maker.
If Mitchell is not the starter, another rookie, Sal Frelick, could patrol center field in the Wild Card Series. Frelick has been one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball since making his MLB debut in late July, though most of his time has been spent in right field.
Right field
Aside from Yelich, there isn’t much pop at the plate when it comes to Milwaukee’s outfielders. Whether it’s Frelick, Tyrone Taylor or Blake Perkins in right field, they can’t compete with the D-backs in that department.
That’s because Arizona boasts a right fielder who is likely to be the NL Rookie of the Year after becoming the first rookie in AL/NL history to hit 25 or more homers (25) and steal 50 or more. bases (54) at the same time.
Carroll had some people whispering “MVP candidate” early in the season, when Carroll led the league in several offensive categories. The D-backs have a definite advantage here.
Designated hitter
As mentioned above, the D-backs primarily used Gurriel and Pham in this spot in the second half of the season, and later, they went together later. While their overall performance is solid, we’re going with the warm hand here.
Since being traded to Milwaukee by the Mets on July 31, Mark Canha has been a boon for his new club, especially in the last month of the regular season. He hit .301/.387/.452 in September to help push the Brewers to the finish line and the NL Central crown.
Start pitching
This is where the real separation between these clubs begins. The D-backs have two frontline starters that are among the best in baseball, for sure. Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly were outstanding, a big reason why Arizona made the playoffs for the first time in six years.
But the Brewers are a cut above when it comes to almost any starting staff in the Majors, despite getting a hit with Brandon Woodruff set to miss the NL Wild Card Series with a right that shoulder injury. But the Crew still has former Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta, and the duo will have a hard time beating the best-of-three series.
The D-backs will go with Brandon Pfaadt in the opener and be without Gallen and Kelly until Game 2 and, if necessary, Game 3, respectively.
Relief pitching
If there is a gap between the Brewers and D-backs in starting pitching, there is a gap between the clubs when we talk bullpens. Milwaukee’s relief corps finished with a second-ranked 3.40 ERA during the regular season, while Arizona’s relievers combined for an 18th-ranked 4.22 mark.
If the D-backs find themselves late, it could turn off, especially if they see Brewers closer Devin Williams come out of the bullpen. Williams seamlessly filled in for Josh Hader when the latter was traded to the Padres last year, posting a 1.53 ERA with 36 saves, striking out 38 percent of the batters he faced.
Arizona traded Paul Sewald from Seattle to become the new closer before the Trade Deadline, but he struggled in his first month with the D-backs. He had a 4.66 ERA in August before righting the ship with a 2.25 ERA in September.
The D-backs will need to score early, as postseason contests against the Brewers could be shortened quickly if Milwaukee takes the lead.
prophecy
The big separator here is pitching, top to bottom. With the Brewers able to line up their big three and the D-backs not having the luxury of sending Gallen or Kelly out there for Game 1, that could be a major advantage for Milwaukee. And if the shadows of October grow longer as games get into the later innings, the Brewers’ bullpen is much stronger. The D-backs will show some fight, but they have their hands full.