The Minnesota Wild have just one piece left in their offseason puzzle: Calen Addison. In the span of almost a year, Addison went from being rumored to be the Wild’s odd man out of the future, to running their power play, to a healthy scratch for John Klingberg, to the rumor mill. trade bait again. After some strange twists and turns, Addison’s current status as an RFA in need of a contract is remarkably ordinary.
The calendar is about to flip to September, and the rosters are well set. So, too, is the range of salaries Addison will get in his next deal. Assuming Marco Rossi and Brock Faber make the roster, and there are no unexpected shake-ups, the Wild have $1,643,079 in remaining cap space. Addison will make no more than that, and no less than the league minimum of $775K for this upcoming season.
A gap of less than $900K isn’t that big in the grand scheme of things, but it’s also everything. The Wild, presumably, want that number as close to the league minimum as possible. It’s uncharacteristic for a team to want to pay a player as little as humanly possible, but there’s a greater urgency for Minnesota to do so with Addison.
Every dollar the Wild pay Addison is a dollar they don’t have to play for the rest of the season. Signing Addison to the league minimum would allow the team to, say, carry a full 23-player roster (but only if that 23rd player is also in the league minimum). They may not use flexibility as often as possible. However, any breathing room means they have an easier time navigating injuries, or not running into the cap with rookie bonuses.
It’s easy for people who aren’t in Addison’s skates and manage our actual careers to say that Addison should take one for the team and sign a small deal to help them out. But it wasn’t so easy for Addison. Evolving-Hockey projects a one-year deal for Addison to come in at $1.05 million. $275K is not much for Kirill Kaprizov or Matt “49 pages” courage. For Addison, it probably is, because it represents about 20% of his estimated career earnings on the table.
It was more complicated by his demotion. The Wild bringing in Klingberg to run the power play had a secondary effect of putting a cap on Addison’s point totals. Addison scored 29 points in 62 games last season. Assuming this streak lasts more than 80 games, he’s coming off a 37-point year. Points are the biggest salary driver in the NHL, so Addison’s little earning power is depleted by the move.
It probably doesn’t matter, because Addison has zero leverage but his presence. He has not played enough games to be eligible for arbitration and therefore will not be presented with an offer sheet. His only right under the CBA is to say “no” to any contract he doesn’t like.
Addison seems happy to be with Wild. He worked out with Minnesota coaches in the offseason — a rare thing for an unsigned player — and participated in team activities, such as the Minnesota Wild night at Target Field earlier this week. That at the very least signals that it’s only a matter of time before he and the team reach some kind of middle ground.
The reason for that, and maybe even the reason the Addison trade rumors haven’t materialized despite the smoke is simple: They need each other. Minnesota is desperate for a power-play quarterback, and Addison is looking to put himself back on the map. Both parties offer solutions to the other’s problems; Addison with his skills, and the Wild with a prime opportunity.
Addison is now 23, and he’s part of a 2018 defensive draft class that’s already seen some movement and some swing, especially among offensive defensemen. Worse, very few of these moves work. The New Jersey Devils traded Ty Smith (17th overall) to the division rival Pittsburgh Penguins — who sent him to Wilkes-Barre Scranton. Erik Karlsson is in the fold now, meaning Smith isn’t running on a power play anytime soon.
Going further down the list, Ryan Merkley (21st) went from San Jose to Colorado (the AHL’s Barracuda and Eagles, respectively) at the trade deadline, and Merkley is now in the KHL. Filip Johansson (24th) is in the Vancouver Canucks system, but he spent all but three games in Sweden last year. Nicolas Beaudin (27th) is now with his second team, and in the AHL. Nils Lundkvist (28th) and Alexander Romanov (39th) are on their second teams and haven’t scored much, with 16 and 22 points last year, respectively.
Among these high-profile 2018 Draft defensemen, only Rasmus Sandin (29th, to the Toronto Maple Leafs) is taking advantage of being in a position to succeed with a new team. He had 15 points in 19 games with the Washington Capitals. For most of the other players, there was no golden moment in their new squads.
That means the only real shot Addison can count on is the one in front of him, and it’s there for the taking. He will have a hard time competing for even-strength minutes, with Jared Spurgeon and Faber ahead of him. That may not matter much, as it will allow Addison to get more sheltered minutes with Spurgeon and Faber dealing with the toughest assignments. However, that was also the case last year, and Addison was still demoted.
He needs to tread water with equal strength (perhaps not as easy a task as Jon Merrill and Alex Goligoski as his teammates) while quarterbacking the power play at a high level again. His power play skills combined with the team’s talent should push him to 40 points in a full season. There are 31 defenses that put up a 40-point season at age 23 or younger in the past decade. Only Will Butcher played himself out of the league. If he can get that kind of production, he might find a spot on someone’s top-four defensive unit.
Maybe even the Wild. Their need for a power play quarterback isn’t going away anytime soon. Even a solid season should lead to a contract that gives them bang for the buck in Addison. If the team can see Addison contributing in more game situations than 5-on-4 or 5-on-3, why wouldn’t they want him for the next wave of Wild hockey?
Anything could happen going forward, but right now, neither is in a position to do much more than work on things in short order. Addison and the Wild need each other too much for this deal to go through.