MLB Picks Today | Odds, Expert Projection for Tuesday, August 22

Welcome to Opening Pitch, my column you’ll find every day throughout the 2023 MLB season.

My goal in the Opening Pitch is to highlight my top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis, especially my reaction to open overnight lines while using my baseball betting model.

I’ll be looking to release a new version of the Opening Pitch every day between midnight and 3 am ET; after I enter my overnight bets on Action Network App and update MLB projections. Hopefully, you’ll use this as your morning betting guide to get ahead of the baseball markets.

You can find my projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on the PRO Projections tab and on the game pages) and in our Projections Hub (which you can bookmark).

You can also shop for the best lines on our odds page.

Expert Picks for Tuesday, August 22

San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Kyle Harrison vs. Taijuan Walker
First Pitch: 6:40 pm ET

The Giants will promote the No. 20 overall prospect in the MLB pipeline, southpaw starter Kyle Harrison, to make his major league debut on Tuesday, just 10 days after his 22nd birthday.

Harrison, a third-round draft pick in 2020, posted an incredible 37.4% strikeout rate in the minors but struggled with command (12.3% walk rate), leading to a you have a 1.31 WHIP. He owns marks of 115 Stuff+, 91 Location+, and 93 Pitching+ in Triple-A this season but seems to have found a groove in the last month (combined 11 1/3 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 4 BB, 17 K) and received a call to the show.

Harrison throws from a low arm slot — which seems especially troublesome for both-side hitters — and he has a strong feel for three different pitches, combining with a plus fastball. and slider with average change. Elite Stuff+ readouts suggest Harison has ace potential as his command improves.

Conversely, Taijuan Walker has seen his fastball velocity and Stuff+ dip in recent starts. Walker averaged 93.5 mph on the pitch last season and sits closer to 94 mph for his career, but he has dropped to 92.8 mph this season and is averaging just 91.2 mph, 91.5 mph and 90.8 mph in his last three outings.

In the second half, Walker had pitch model ratings of 91 Stuff+, 98 Location+, and 94 Pitching+ — along with a 92 mph fastball — compared to 94, 102 and 99 marks with a 93 mph fastball in the first half.

Bet the Giants to +120 for the first five innings (F5) and +118 for the entire game.

Furthermore, despite the possibility of a blowout for either or both starting pitchers, I put the total at 8.6 runs, with an eight mph wind blowing from center field. Bet Under 9 to -105.

Colorado Rockies vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Ty Blach vs. Zach Littell
First Pitch: 6:40 pm ET

I don’t see an advantage for Colorado on paper anywhere in this matchup. However, I still expect them to win Tuesday’s game at least 35% of the time, and they are one of my more important projected money line contents for Monday’s slate.

Zack Littell will make his fifth consecutive start for the Rays, and while his 2.78 ERA over the past four weeks is shiny, the pitch modeling metrics (88 Stuff+, 101 Location+, 101 Pitching+) suggest he’s a league -average arms.

That’s a significant improvement over Ty Blach (58 Stuff+, 104 Location+), a soft tosser with one of the lowest strikeout rates in modern baseball (12.6% career).

I see a similar gap between these two bullpens, but I can’t get the Rays above -185 in this matchup; bet the Rockies at +200 or better.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles

Hyun-Jin Ryu vs. Grayson Rodriguez
First Pitch: 7:05 pm ET

Since returning from the minors on July 17, Grayson Rodriguez has entered breakout mode (3.03 ERA, 3.79 xFIP, 13.9% K-BB%) while posting absurd pitch modeling metrics (128 Stuff+, 102 Location+, 110 Pitching+).

During that span, Rodriguez ranked sixth in Stuff+ (128), just behind Corbin Burnes, and 12th in Pitching+ (110).

I put Tuesday’s total at 7.8, with a slightly favorable pitching season. Bet Under 8.5 to -118 or Under 8 to +100.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cleveland Guardians

Bobby Miller vs. Noah Syndergaard
First Pitch: 7:10 pm ET

Noah Syndergaard’s revenge game? The Dodgers sent Thor to Cleveland for Amed Rosario before the trade deadline, and he will have a chance for revenge on Tuesday night.

Syndergaard posted an 81 Stuff+, 103 Location+ and 98 Pitching+ line in 21 1/3 innings in Cleveland, and with his stolen base issue (allowed 31 of the last 32 base stealers, dating back to last season ), he allowed more runners in scoring position than you would normally expect.

Bobby Miller (131 Stuff+, 103 Location+, 111 Pitching+ in the second half) rates as high as any starter by pitch modeling indicators. His actual results (3.73 xERA, 15.4% K-BB%) are closer to average. However, I expect to see Miller ascend as a top-of-the-rotation arm by the end of next season, if not sooner.

I projected the Dodgers’ F5 line at -205; bet F5 moneyline on Dodgers to -190.

Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros

Tanner Houck vs. Justin Verlander
First Pitch: 8:10 pm ET

I’ve been highlighting the obvious signs of decline for the 40-year-old Verlander all season, but I’ll cut to the chase and summarize it as follows:

Verlander’s fastball velocity is down a bit this season, as are his Stuff+(107 vs. 118 last season) and command ratings (102 Location+ vs. 107 last season. His strikeout rate is also down (from 33.% in 2020 to 27.8% last season and 20.2% in 2023), and his xERA increased from 2.66 to 3.55.

Tanner Houck (3.92 xERA, 102 Stuff+, 102 Location+, 100 Pitching+) returns from a two-month IL and rehab stint on Tuesday, but he showed reasonably comparable indicators (3.92 xERA) as Verlander before the long deletion.

Bet on Boston at +135 or better against a future Hall-of-Famer.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Angels

Graham Ashcraft vs. Lucas Giolito
First Pitch: 9:38 pm ET

Since June 30, Graham Aschraft (5.05 xERA) has posted a 2.17 ERA while recording a quality start in eight of nine outings.

Pitching models always liked Ashcraft’s slider (165 Stuff+), which boosted his overall arsenal (127 Stuff+), but encouraging results finally followed.

In those same nine starts, Ashcraft posted a 130 Stuff+ number – tied with Corbin Burnes for the best in baseball – a 101 Location+ number, and a 105 Pitching+ number (Tied on the 14th with Freddy Peralta and Burnes).

Much of the anticipated content of this game hinges on whether Mike Trout — still experiencing discomfort Monday — returns to the Angels’ lineup on Tuesday.

I have no bets on this game with Trout in the lineup for the Angels. However, due to recent reports, I’m guessing he won’t be in the lineup; if that is the case, bet the Reds to +118.

Texas Rangers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Jon Gray vs. Zac Gallen
First Pitch: 9:40 pm ET

I’ll repeat what I said before he started on Thursday:

“I’m still waiting for Zac Gallen to break through and help cash in our longshot Cy Young tickets to Blake Snell. While Gallen continues to churn out quality starts, the underlying indicators suggest he’s due regression and – while above average – possibly not a true ace (4.06 xERA, 106 Stuff+, 105 Location+, 108 Pitching+).

I don’t have much faith in Jon Gray (4.23 xERA), who has seen his fastball velocity and Stuff+ ratings drop this season while his xERA rises from 3.59 to 4.23. And his pitch modeling ratings (95 Stuff+, 99 Location+) fell into below-average territory after sitting at 100 and 102, respectively, last season.

I project the Rangers as a +103 underdog; bet Texas on the moneyline up to +112.

Zerillo’s Bets for Tuesday, August 22

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• Boston Red Sox (+137, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet +135)
• Cincinnati Reds (+124, 0.5u) on FanDuel (bet +118)
• Colorado Rockies (+230, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet +200)
• Detroit Tigers (+105, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet +105)
• Los Angeles Dodgers F5 (-182, 0.5u) on FanDuel (bet at -190)
• San Francisco Giants F5 (+128, 0.5u) on FanDuel (bet +120)
• San Francisco Giants (+134, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet +118)
• San Francisco Giants / Philadelphia Phillies, Under 9 (+100, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet up to -105)
• St. Louis Cardinals / Pittsburgh Pirates, Under 10 (-110, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet at -115)
• Texas Rangers (+115, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet +112)
• Toronto Blue Jays / Baltimore Orioles, Under 8.5 (-115, 0.5u) on FanDuel (bet on -118 or 8, +100)