The Truth Behind My Crazy Gambling Scheme

red-dice-1527359 Last night I met up with Gary the Gambler to discuss my haphazard betting scheme over a beer. Here’s what I learnt:

  • Last weekend (Week #3) I predicted three winners. Gary the Gambler also predicted three. So, despite not knowing who was playing who or where, I matched him.
  • According to Gary the Gambler, I came out of the whole thing with a loss of £2.69. Which is none too shabby when you consider that I was blindly stumbling around in total darkness.
  • Over the same period Gary walked away with £65 thanks to an accumulator win of £70 in Week #1, which even he described as “f**ing unbelievable”. He then started prattling on about QPR and I mentally closed the curtains.
  • Overall Gary predicted 12 winners out of 15. I blindly guessed 6 out of 15. This means I was correct 40% of the time, whereas he hit the 80% mark.

So something of a hammering then? Well, not quite.

You see, thanks to this scheme I have now become one of the few people on earth to have thrown money at a bookmaker hoping to lose. Unknown to Gary – or anyone else for that matter – this whole gambling malarkey has actually been a sideways experiment.

My hypothesis? That I could correctly predict the fortunes of various teams in the Premier League based purely on the pattern of previous seasons. And I believe I have. burning-roulette-1586069

  • In Week #1, I chose teams who were newly promoted or likely to be firmly mid-table, plus one of the ‘big six’ (Chelsea, Southampton, Palace, Everton, Villa, Norwich). The result? One winner.
  • In Week #2, I chose teams who were likely to be mid-table but possibly pushing for the Top 6, plus one of the traditional ‘big six’ (Newcastle, Everton, Swansea, West Ham, Liverpool). The result? Two winners.
  • In Week #3, I chose teams who were all from the traditional ‘big six’ (Man City, Man Utd, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool). The result? Three winners.

As you can see I won more games every week. When you factor in that I was only gambling for a win and that some of the teams will have drawn, it shows that I have pretty much got the rough shape of the league table worked out without knowing more than a handful of results.

If I hadn’t then the pattern would be different. At the moment it is like this:

  • Mid-table teams – 1 win
  • High mid-table teams – 2 wins
  • Top of the table teams – 3 wins

Obviously, this wouldn’t stand up in the eyes of a statistician, but it does at least prove that I know who has more chance of winning a footy match based on zero information. It also follows that if you ever want to be successful at footy gambling, you merely have to pick the top six every week.

That is, with one exception. The keen eyed among you will notice that I didn’t select Tottenham once. The reason is simple: even fans that watch Spurs week-in, week-out have no idea how they’re going to play. So what chance does a blind man stand? I’d need to be a psychic to pull that trick off. the-winning-hand-1316466

That said, I’m guessing they’re either fourth or fifth and that Harry Kane is struggling to score as many as last season. They’ll have a rubbish away kit too.

Blind betting #2: the rematch

20151105_164121Having been thrashed 70-0 by Gary The Gambler in my first attempt at blindly predicting the footy scores, I this weekend returned for more.

The plan? Well, to give myself a fighting chance I ditched any of the recently promoted teams of Week #1. Initially, I’d reasoned that at least one of them should be doing a Hull City and terrifying the bejaysus out of the established order, but the truth is they simply hurl too many weird variables into the mix. Plus, they’re all clearly pants.

Instead, I opted to pick four teams who should be in the top half of the Premier League and who could, conceivably, be pushing for a pre-Xmas flirtation with the top six. Step forward Newcastle, Everton, Swansea and West Ham.

For my final choice I swapped Chelsea for Liverpool based on the assumption that Jurgen Klopp’s arrival could give the Reds some kind of bounce in form. Not that I have any idea how they’ve been playing – or if Klopp has boarded a boat from Dortmund yet.

Admittedly, this use of recent footy knowledge does run slightly against the grain of my crazy scheme, but in my defence I can state that I have absolutely no idea of Liverpool’s fixtures, form or injuries (although I’m guessing Daniel Sturridge is on the list). Plus, my only other option was Tottenham.

The result? Well, brace yourselves…

Gary The Gambler
Stake: £5
System used: Accumulator.
Teams: He’d tell me if I asked but I’d then have to drink a pint of meths to erase the details.
Winnings: £0. Nada. Zero. Zip. 제로.

Stake: £5
System used: Idiotic hunches dreamt up on the northbound carriage of the M40.
Teams: Newcastle, Everton, Swansea, West Ham and Liverpool.
Winnings: £1.50

Yes, you read it right. Despite having absolutely no idea who was playing who or where, I somehow managed to beat Gary The Gambler by the princely sum of £1.50. 20151105_163929

Admittedly, this still leaves me £68.50 behind. Plus, Gary actually predicted more winning teams and only drew a blank because his accumulator failed. But, given that this is a gambling-based experiment, I personally feel that cold hard cash is the only marker that can be scientifically applied. Plus, it means I win.

So there you have it: using little more than hunches based on previous seasons, I managed to out-gamble a man who: a) knows the form, b) knows who’s playing, c) has gambled all his adult life (if you believe that adulthood begins around the age of 6).

Naturally, this leaves just one thing to do: having reigned-in Gary’s lead by a cool £1.50, I now have to try and close the remainder of the £68.50 gap from Week #1. It’s the best out of three baby! And this time I’m going BIG!!